CarboSchools – Modelling (Sharing Experiments continues)

søndag 3 mai 2009, kl. 1:03 | Publisert i Konferanser og kurs | Legg igjen en kommentar
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Marc Jamous – Regional Coordinator in France – Predicting CO2 scenarios through models

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1958 was the first year that the total amount of atmospheric CO2 was measured, which is the reason for the start year for this simplistic model. In this model you start by the total amount of atmospheric CO2, and after that you add fuel emission and land use.

imageThe first step is to add the emissions to the atmospheric amount. The second step would be to compare the measured and the calculated CO2 data. The students will then see that there in a gap between the measured and calculated values – CO2 must be absorbed somewhere else then in the atmosphere.

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The next step is to find a suitable value for the natural absorption, as a percentage of the emissions.

This is a great introduction to climate modelling as a discussion theme with our students.

Further on it would be possible to split natural absorption in absorption by the ocean and absorption by the vegetation.

After making this model, it is now possible to include the prediction scenarios from the IPCC reports to calculate model results. It is also possible to get the students to make their own scenarios.

Camparison between the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios:

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My concluding remarks: This was an easy but fantastic way of introducing the principles of climate modelling! I look forward to try this with my own students next year 🙂 I also want to thank Marc for sharing his files with us.

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